Air Transport Demand and Population: Case Study from Germany

Abstract

Air transport demand is highly monitored determinant since its knowledge is important for transport planners, airlines, airports and aircraft manufacturers as well. In the present paper we analyzed whether there is a causal relationship between air transport demand and population in Germany. The dependence was examined by correlation analysis of residues which guarantees to reveal the true relationship between any determinants. However, it is essential to realize that the population is very extensive term and brings together groups of people with different characteristics. Therefore not only the influence of the population as a whole was examined, but the population was for research purpose divided into groups according to the economic activity of citizens. The relationship between population and air transport demand was explored in Germany as a whole and also separately for its districts. Although previous research has proven the relationship between the population and air transport demand, in this case is shown that air transport demand depends much more on number of inactive citizens than on the whole population. It was also discovered that the demand is more dependent on the total population of the country than on the number of inhabitants in individual districts.